YEAR ZERO, DAY ONE

I don't really feel like gloating over Liberals tonight, and not just because the Tories didn't win a stronger mandate. And it certainly isn't because the reduced mandate makes governing exceedingly difficult for a bunch of relative neophytes.

No, I'm really going to miss hating the government. And I don't think that I'll have that opportunity for several years to come (10+ years is my guess).

I'm an unashamed partisan, on a good day, and I see a lot of sunny days ahead (metaphorically speaking; I live in Vancouver where what you call the Sun, we call the myth of the Big Yellow Orb). The agenda for Stephen Harper will be easier to enact than the numbers in the House would suggest.

Harper's big asset in his next electoral test will be the priorities he outlined in this campaign-- priorities he must, can and will deliver on. The Federal Accountability Act will probably get near unanimous support in the House, and should extend his government's honeymoon long enough to get his first budget passed. I expect the Grits to act like the Tories from early last year and abstain from the budget vote that reduces the GST and cuts capital, corporate and personal rates while laying the groundwork for the Tory childcare/baby bonus plan.

Just before summer, I suspect a private member's bill to address the status of same-sex marriage will be introduced, and soundly defeated. Just then, the government turns it's focus on crime and the first of a series of bills makes it's way onto the floor of the House. The NDP and the Grits will have to back up these measures, even though they would rather eat their own feet than further cede room to the Tories on this issue. But they won't have much choice. The Tories will have the newness of their government and the better financial resources in their favour.

At some point over the next 8 months, the Prime Minister will have to sit down with the provinces and start negotiating the fiscal imbalance. If and when a deal is reached, and it will be in all parties interests to reach a deal, Harper will look to Duceppe for support, and get it.

So, this is my dry, boring prediction for the year ahead. Although I don't expect it to be as smooth for the Tories as I would hope, I don't think the Liberals are going to have such a great time, either. First, obviously, is the leadership change. Which direction will they go? Right or Left? East or West (of the East)? Anglo or...other? Whatever they choose, they will probably beat themselves up for quite awhile, long enough for the Prime Minister to dispell the illusions about his agenda.

Second, most of the former Liberal cabinet will get pretty restless. It's one thing to go from opposition to power, quite another to go the other way. I suspect that, after a new Liberal leader is forged in the fires of Mount Doom, a lot of the tourists will take a powder (I'm looking at you, Iggy).

Lastly, I think the really bad news for the Grits will be the investigations into past malfeasance(s). I suspect we'll see something like Gomery II, probably around the time of the Liberal leadership convention. And I'm not as convinced as others about the unity of the Grits on the other side of the convention.

But maybe this is all just wishful thinking. I'll pontificate/daydream about the annihilation of the Federal Liberals in other posts, but in the meantime, I'm going to have to adjust to respecting Parliament again.